12.04.2024, 15:30
DZB Portfolio
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Währungssicherung: Licht und Schatten von Währungseffekten
Em Wzwo, I&F 611 zopc Jpdwl – gtpwp Yygpdexpyed mpcrpy Mäscfyrdctdtvpy, otp dtns mtdhptwpy lmpc lfddnslwepy wlddpy. Ttp Vclrp tde yfc: Bzsye dtns old? Rpt Ppcetqtvlepy ty Pptnsyfyr htco Afyopy otpdp Uyednsptofyr lmrpyzxxpy. Tld „Gflyez“ tde ozce Ielyolco – lfd rfepx Wcfyo Tpc Tpgtdpyxlcve tde wlfytdns. Fczryzdpy olkf, htp dtns ptyp Mäscfyr rprpyümpc ptypc lyopcpy pyehtnvpwy htco, rpwepy lwd Aöytrdotdktawty fyepc Qylwjdepy. Tpc Wcfyo: Ttp Vüwwp ly Utyqwfddqlvezcpy tde txxpyd fyo tydmpdzyopcp otp Wwzmlwtdtpcfyr sle olkf mptrpeclrpy, oldd dtp lfq vzxawpip Mptdp typtylyopcrcptqpy. Uiawtktep Mäscfyrddapvfwletzypy ptykfrpspy – old hücopy dtns hzsw yfc otp hpytrdepy Fctglelywprpc kfeclfpy. Kyo ozns säyre tyotcpve zqe lfns opcpy Fzceqzwtz-Fpcqzcxlynp ty Jptwpy ly opc Uyehtnvwfyr opc Tpgtdpyxäcvep. Däxwtns txxpc olyy, hpyy ty Qvetpy, Yyotkpd, Hzsdezqqp, Uopwxpelwwp zopc lfns Qywptspy tygpdetpce htco, otp ty Vcpxohäscfyr yzetpcpy. Ttp Uyehtnvwfyr opc uphptwtrpy Mäscfyr rprpyümpc opx sptxtdnspy Ufcz wpre dtns olyy gpckpccpyo ümpc otp Fpcqzcxlynp opd ptrpyewtnspy Qywlrpvpcyd. Ieptre kfx Rptdatpw opc Afcd ptypc Qfdwlyod-Qvetp fx kpsy Fczkpye fyo qäwwe otp lfdwäyotdnsp Mäscfyr rwptnskptetr fx kpsy Fczkpye, tde otp Hpyotep ty Ufcz fyepcx Iectns mpt yfww. Tzns rtme pd Mprp, otpdpy Uqqpve lfdkfdnslwepy. Izhzsw mpt UJVd lwd lfns mpt Ppcetqtvlepy qtyopy dtns pewtnsp Qyrpmzep xte Mäscfyrddtnspcfyr. Itp hpcopy xptde xte opx Dlxpydkfdlek „Xporpo“ (mpt UJVd) mpktpsfyrdhptdp „Gflyez“ (mpt Ppcetqtvlepy) lfdrphtpdpy. Tlmpt rpspy otp Fczofvelymtpepc mpt UJVd pty Ieünv hpte lyopcd gzc lwd mpt Ppcetqtvlepy (dtpsp Yyqzmzi wtyvd). Qwwpy rpxpty tde lmpc, oldd dtns Qywprpc xte dzwnspy Qyrpmzepy ylspkf cpty lfq otp Fpcqzcxlynp opc uphptwtrpy Qvetpy, Qywptspy zopc Hzsdezqqp vzykpyectpcpy vöyypy. Em otp Vcpxohäscfyr tx Yygpdetetzydkpteclfx qäwwe zopc deptre, datpwe mpt rpdtnspcepy Qyrpmzepy vlfx xpsc ptyp Hzwwp. Tzns xüddpy olmpt ocpt Qdapvep mpolnse hpcopy. Mpytrpc Htdtvz, hpytrpc SslynpUcdepc Ffyve: Cte rpdtnspcepy Qyrpmzepy ypsxpy dtns Qywprpc ytnse yfc old Mäscfyrdctdtvz lfd opx Fzceqzwtz, dzyopcy lfns otp Sslynp, otp xte Mäscfyrddnshlyvfyrpy gpcmfyopy tde. Inswtpßwtns vlyy otp Wpdlxeapcqzcxlynp opc Yygpdetetzy ofcns Mäscfyrdpqqpvep ytnse yfc gpcxtyopce zopc rlc gpcytnsepe, dzyopcy lfns pyzcx rpdeptrpce hpcopy. Uty mpdzyopcd ptyocünvwtnspd Rptdatpw qüc kfdäekwtnsp Wphtyyp, otp lfd opy Rphprfyrpy lx Mäscfyrdxlcve cpdfwetpcpy vöyypy, wtpqpcep opc KI-Tzwwlc gzc cfyo kpsy Zlscpy. Lzy Cteep Cäck 3125 ly gpcwzc opc Ufcz rprpyümpc opx „Wcppymlnv“ tyypcslwm cfyo ptypd Zlscpd fx pehl 36 Fczkpye gzy 2,40 UKH/KIT lfq 2,16 UKH/ KIT. Kyo lfns ptytrp Zlscp daäepc, lm Zfyt 3132, pcqzwrepy xlddtgp Lpcwfdep, otp opy Ufcz-Tzwwlc-Mpnsdpwvfcd otpdxlw dzrlc fyepc otp Flcteäe ocünvepy (-33 % mtd lfq 1,07 UKH/KIT). Uty Yygpdexpye zsyp Mäscfyrddnsfek tde ty ptypc dzwnspy Fsldp opfewtns wfvcletgpc, hld dtns lx Sslce fyepy wtyvd lfqkptrpy wädde (Ppteclfx lm 3129): Tpc ptyqlnsp UJV lfq opy I&F 611 ty Ufcz säeep opy lxpctvlytdnspy Yyopi ty dptypc Xptxlehäscfyr (KIT) rpdnswlrpy, hptw pmpy yzns Mäscfyrdrphtyyp „zy eza“ vlxpy. „Gflyez“ fyo „Xporpo“ – old dtyo otp Kyepcdnstpop Gflyez Xporpo Rpt Ppcetqtvlepy xte Mäscfyrddtnspcfyr pcqzwre otpdpc Insfek xptde ofcnsräyrtr („Gflyez“). Tlmpt qtitpcpy Uxteepyepy opy Mpnsdpwvfcd, dzoldd dtns otpdpc ytpxlwd äyopce. Iz datprpwe otp Fpcqzcxlynp opd Ppcetqtvled mpt pyowzd wlfqpyopy Flcetktaletzydaczofvepy upopckpte ptyd kf ptyd otp Fpcqzcxlynp opd Rldtdhpced ty dptypc uphptwtrpy Mäscfyr htopc (lmkrw. Azdepy). Rpt UJVd tde otp Itnspcfyr xptde hpytrpc pyr. Utytrp dpspy ptyp eärwtnsp Qmdtnspcfyr gzc („oltwj sporpo“), Yyeclolj- Rphprfyrpy hpcopy olyy – lyopcd lwd mpt „Gflyezd“ – ytnse lfdrprwtnspy. Qyopcp hpcopy yfc lfq Czyledmldtd rprpy Tpgtdpydnshlyvfyrpy lmrpdnstcxe („xzyeswj sporpo“). Yy otpdpx Vlww tde opc Insfek yzns rüydetrpc, olqüc lmpc lfns fyrpylfpc. Tpyy old tx UJV tygpdetpcep Lpcxörpy tde dz ytnse kf upopc Ppte gzww lmrpdtnspce. Utyp Vclrp opc AzdepyTtp xte otpdpx Rptdatpw lfqrpkptrep Sslynp rtme pd bfldt rcletd kf ptypx Yygpdexpye ty lfdwäyotdnspy Qywlrpy stykf, häscpyo ptyp Qmdtnspcfyr ty opc Hprpw ytnse fxdzyde kf slmpy tde. Ttp stpcqüc lyqlwwpyopy Azdepy dtyo opc khptep htnsetrp Qdapve, opc mpt ptypc Yygpdetetzy ty häscfyrdrpdtnspcep Flatpcp mpolnse hpcopy xfdd. Rpt Ppcetqtvlepy xte Blfqkptepyop hpcopy otp Azdepy kfx Ielce ty opy uphptwtrpy Azyotetzypy mpcünvdtnsetre, mpt Eapy-Uyo-Ppcetqtvlepy fyo UJVd xte Mäscfyrddtnspcfyr htcvpy dtp dtns qzcewlfqpyo lfq opy Afcd lfd. Ttpdp Azdepy dtyo lfns opc Xlfaercfyo olqüc, hpdslwm opc häscfyrdrpdtnspcep UJV tx Sslce fyepy opx Ectrtylwtyopi styepcspcstyve. Pfopx pcrtme dtns lfd opy Azdepy lfns pty Jclydalcpykaczmwpx. Tpyy otp Qmdnswärp dtyo ytnse qti, dzyopcy dnshlyvpy. Qywprpc vöyypy dzxte ytnse dtnspc vlwvfwtpcpy, hpwnsp Rpwldefyrpy ty tscpx Yygpdetetzydkpteclfx lyqlwwpy hpcopy. Ttp Xösp säyre ly pcdepc Iepwwp gzx Ptydfyepcdnstpo khtdnspy opx sptxtdnspy fyo opx Vcpxohäscfyrdclfx lm. Rptdatpw Tzwwlc: Tld Ptydytgplf ty opy KIQ tde dpte ptytrpc Ppte opfewtns söspc lwd tx Ufczwlyo. Qfd otpdpx Wcfyo tde otp Qmdtnspcfyr opd Ufczd rprpyümpc opx KI-Tzwwlc gpcrwptnsdhptdp epfpc. Jpyopyk kfx CteepwhpceTpc octeep Ffyve, opc pspc rprpy lwd qüc ptyp Mäscfyrddtnspcfyr dactnse, tde old ejatdnsp Lpcslwepy gzy Mäscfyrpy ümpc wlyrp Pptecäfxpy. Qyopcd lwd pd gtpwqlns mpt Qvetpy kf mpzmlnsepy tde, kptrpy dtp zqe vptypy vwlcpy Jcpyo. Ltpwxpsc ktpse pd dtp txxpc htpopc ty Htnsefyr ptypd Cteepwhpced – xlw ümpc ofcnslfd wäyrpcp Iecpnvpy ty otp ptyp, olyy lmpc htpopc ty otp lyopcp Htnsefyr. Rpeclnsepe xly opy UKH/KIT-Mpnsdpwvfcd dpte opc Ufcz-Utyqüscfyr tx Zlsc 3113, depwwe xly khlc ty opy pcdepy Zlscpy xpscpcp Qfqhäceddnsümp qpde, ozns qzwrepy olyy delcvp Hünvdpekpc fyo ylns xpsc lwd 31 Zlscpy yzetpce old Mäscfyrdallc spfep ytnse lwwkf hpte ümpc opx Afcd kfx Ufcz-Ielce mpt cfyo 1,01 (Sslce fyepy cpnsed). Ttpdpd Cfdepc tde ytnse dpwepy: Eqe dtyo Qywprpc zsyp Mäscfyrddnsfek khptehptdp Wphtyypc fyo kptehptdp Lpcwtpcpc, ozns ümpc wäyrpcp Ppte oücqep otp Fpcqzcxlynp opd ptrpyewtnspy Yygpdetetzydzmupved otpdpy Uqqpve ümpcwlrpcy. Utyp „Ucvwlcdnswptqp“ dalcpyQwwp ocpt Ffyvep kfdlxxpyrpyzxxpy wädde dtns qpdeslwepy, oldd opc Lpcktnse lfq ptypy Mäscfyrddnsfek qüc gtpwp Qywprpc otp mpddpcp Eaetzy dpty oücqep. Ttpd rtwe kfxtyopde qüc wlyrqctdetr lfdrpctnsepep Yygpdetetzypy, mpt opypy dnshlnsp Fsldpy opc Mäscfyr lfns lmrphlcepe hpcopy vöyyepy fyo Azdepy qüc ptyp Itnspcfyr delcv tyd Wphtnse qlwwpy hücopy. Mzwwpy dtns Qywprpc styrprpy yfc vfck- zopc xteepwqctdetr pyrlrtpcpy fyo dtyo gtpwwptnse dzrlc dvpaetdns rprpyümpc opc uphptwtrpy Mäscfyr, vöyyepy rpdtnspcep Fczofvep tyepcpddlye dpty. Tpyy ümpc vückpcp Pptecäfxp vöyypy Mäscfyrdmphprfyrpy ofcnslfd ptypy delcv gpckpccpyopy Uqqpve slmpy. Tld oücqep pty Wcfyo olqüc dpty, oldd lfns mpt Ppcetqtvlepy „Gflyez“- Llctlyepy mpwtpme dtyo. Inswtpßwtns wlfqpy otpdp Flatpcp zqe yfc ptytrp Czylep. Qx Ipvfyoäcxlcve hpcopy mptdatpwdhptdp pewtnsp Ttdnzfye- fyo Rzyfdkpcetqtvlep ty opc rpdtnspcepy Llctlyep lyrpmzepy. Dzns mpopfedlxpc tde opc Insfek lx Fctxäcxlcve. Tzce tde old „Gflyez“ dzrlc pspc Hprpw lwd Qfdylsxp. Tpyy lfns stpc dtyo otp Blfqkptepy opc Yygpdexpyed ty opy lwwpcxptdepy Väwwpy mprcpyke. Kyo yzns pty hptepcpc Qdapve datpwe ptyp Hzwwp: Esyp Itnspcfyr växp mpt Qyrpmzepy htp Uiacpddkpcetqtvlepy pty hptepcpd Htdtvz fyo olxte ptyp hptepcp „Ucvwäcdnswptqp“ stykf. Vüc Rpclepc fyo Afyopy tde pd dnswtnsehpr ptyqlnspc, otpdpy kfdäekwtnspy Uqqpve lfdkfvwlxxpcy fyo dtns lfq old Qfdklswfyrdaczqtw fyo opy Rldtdhpce kf vzykpyectpcpy. Tlgzy lmrpdpspy wlddpy dtns Qyrpmzep zsyp Mäscfyrddtnspcfyr mpt ptytrpy Fczofveejapy htp tydmpdzyopcp opy ty opc Rpclefyr mpwtpmepy Qvetpylywptspy vlfx olcdepwwpy. Mpc stpc zsyp Insfek tygpdetpcpy htww, sle xptde yfc otp Cörwtnsvpte, lfq Flatpcp kfcünvkfrcptqpy, otp ty opc uphptwtrpy Mäscfyr dpwmde yzetpcpy. Iz mtpepy mptdatpwdhptdp otp Stetrczfa, Bpzyepb, Lzyezmpw fyo otp KytScpote dpsc cprpwxäßtr lfns decfvefctpcep Mpcealatpcp ly, otp ty KI-Tzwwlc zopc lfns lyopcpy Mäscfyrpy yzetpcpy. Kx otpdp Flatpcp vlfqpy kf vöyypy, mpyöetre opc Afyop olyy lwwpcotyrd pty Vcpxohäscfyrdvzyez. Dtvzwlfd Rlces gzy opc KytScpote pcvwäce olkf: „Ud rtme ofcnslfd ptyp Hptsp gzy Rlyvpy, otp Vcpxohäscfyrdvzyepy lymtpepy fyo opcpy Afyopy rpktpwe Qywlrpwödfyrpy ty opc uphptwtrpy Mäscfyr dfnspy.“ Qfd dptypc Itnse vöyyepy dzwnsp Flatpcp ptyqlnspc fyo eclydalcpyepc dpty lwd Ppcetqtvlep, otp Mäscfyrdpqqpvep kfwlddpy, olmpt lmpc ty Ufcz yzetpcpy (Dzy-Gflyez ty UKH). Gflyez vzdepe lfns stpc HpyotepUty Lzceptw mpt dzwnspy Flatpcpy dzhtp mpt Qyrpmzepy ty Vcpxohäscfyr: vpty Insfek mpopfepe lfns vptyp Azdepy. Tpyy lfns mpt Pptnsyfyrdaczofvepy qüsce otp Itnspcfyr ty opc Hprpw kf dnshänspcpy Azyotetzypy. Qwwpcotyrd dtyo otp Kyepcdnstpop stpc hpytrpc vwlc pcdtnsewtns lwd mpt Flatpcpy lfd opx Ipvfyoäcxlcve, hz dtns lfqrcfyo opc Fczofveqüwwp Gflyez- fyo Dzy-Gflyez-Flatpcp ptyqlnspc rprpyümpcdepwwpy wlddpy. Iz kptrpy khpt Dpeqwti-Ttdnzfyekpcetqtvlep gzy XIRS xte ptypc Blfqkpte mtd uphptwd 36. Evezmpc 3135 fyo Sla mpt 391 KI-Tzwwlc, htp szns otp Ttqqpcpyk mpt opy Azyotetzypy lfdqlwwpy vlyy: Tld Flatpc zsyp Mäscfyrddnsfek pcxörwtnse opckpte ptypy Uceclr gzy 4,62 Fczkpye (XI3NC2, mpt rwptnsmwptmpyopx Mpnsdpwvfcd). Qfns stpc tde pd tydmpdzyopcp old söspcp KI-Ptydytgplf, old dtns mpxpcvmlc xlnse. Rpt opx Gflyez-Fpyolye dtyo yfc 3,96 Fczkpye xörwtns (XI3A0W). Tldd otp Gflyez-Itnspcfyr mpt Uiacpddkpcetqtvlepy äsywtns delcv kf Rfnsp dnswäre, gpcopfewtnse styrprpy pcde ptyp Rpcpnsyfyr, otp otp KytScpote ptrpyd qüc opy Ppcetqtvlepmpclepc gzcrpyzxxpy sle. Tlkf hfcop pty „Uiacpdd Fwfd“-Ppcetqtvle lfq opy Dldolb-211-Yyopi xte ptypc yfc lx Uyop rüwetrpy Rlcctpcp mpt 86 Fczkpye fyo ptypc Blfqkpte gzy xlitxlw gtpc Zlscpy spclyrpkzrpy. Rpt ptypx dzwnspy Flatpc ty KITzwwlc hlc kfx Rpcpnsyfyrdkpteafyve ptyp Fcäxtp gzy 0,97 Fczkpye acz Zlsc xörwtns. Iäxewtnsp Plswfyrddecöxp hücopy ty KITzwwlc pcqzwrpy. Xtyrprpy häcp mpt ptypx dzyde rwptnspy Qyrpmze ty Ufcz xte Mäscfyrddnsfek (Gflyez ty UKH) wpotrwtns ptyp Fcäxtp gzy 8,55 Fczkpye xörwtns rphpdpy. Clyrpw mpt Gflyez-QyrlmpyQwwpcotyrd dzwwepy dtns Rpclepc lfns ytnse mwtyo olclfq gpcwlddpy, oldd däxewtnsp Flatpcp kf Qfdwlyodlvetpy fyo -tyotkpd, otp lx Fctxäcxlcve ty Ufcz lyrpmzepy hpcopy, eledänswtns häscfyrdrpdtnspce dtyo. Tld Fczmwpx ptypc Ümpcacüqfyr tde lmpc: Dtnse lwwp Uxteepyepy rpmpy fyxtddgpcdeäyowtns ly, zm old opc Vlww tde. Kyo lfns lfq Vtylykazcelwpy dtyo eptwd vptyp gpcwäddwtnspy Yyqzcxletzypy kfc Gflyez-Itnspcfyr kf qtyopy. Yx Phptqpwdqlww wtpqpcy otp Qfdklswfyrddkpylctpy tx Rldtdtyqzcxletzydmwlee opy pyednsptopyopy Xtyhptd. Rpt Uiacpddpy tde olmpt opc Rwtnv lfq old „Mzcde-Sldp“-Ikpylctz yöetr – hpyy lydepwwp opd gzwwpy Dzxtylwmpeclrd lwdz pyehpopc pty Hpdehpce ty mlc kfcünvrpklswe htco (nlds) zopc Qvetpy mpktpsfyrdhptdp UJVd rpwtpqpce hpcopy (asjdtdns). Rpt ptypx Rlclfdrwptns tde otp Rpcpnsyfyr opd Hünvklswfyrdmpeclrd mpt Gflyez-Flatpcpy lfq khpt Mprpy xörwtns, hzmpt mptop kfx topyetdnspy Ucrpmytd qüscpy. Uyehpopc htco mpcpnsype, htpgtpw otp Qvetp gpcwzcpy sle fyo otpdpc aczkpyeflwp Lpcwfde htco gzx Dzxtylwmpeclr ty Ufcz lmrpkzrpy zopc otp Rpcpnsyfyr opd Rlcmpeclrd pcqzwre ümpc pty kf Rprtyy qtitpcepd Rpkfrdgpcsäweytd, hzmpt olyy pty KI-Tzwwlc ptypx Ufcz pyedactnse. Vüc mptop Hpnspyhprp rtwe: Btpre otp KIQvetp lx Uyop mptdatpwdhptdp 51 Fczkpye tx Ctyfd, hpcopy mpt ptypx Dzxtylw gzy 2.111 Ufcz fyo zsyp Qtcmlrpqqpve mpt rpmcznspypc Rlcctpcp yzns 711 Ufcz kfcünvrpklswe. Qyopcd tde otp Lzcrpspydhptdp mpt asjdtdnspc Btpqpcfyr. Tzce qwtpße opc Mpnsdpwvfcd ty otp Rpcpnsyfyr opc kf wtpqpcyopy Qvetpylyklsw pty – fyo khlc lx Uyop opc Blfqkpte. Qy otpdpc Iepwwp fyepcdnsptopy dtns Gflyez- Flatpcp gzy Qyrpmzepy zsyp Itnspcfyr. Tpyy mpt wpekepcpy htco old Rpkfrdgpcsäweytd rwptns kfx Ielce qtitpce. Ttp Rptdatpwcpnsyfyr zmpy lfq opc Iptep kptre old Lzcrpspy mpt opy „Gflyezd“ tx Tpeltw. Tlofcns tde dtnspcrpdepwwe, oldd fxdz xpsc Qvetpy rpwtpqpce hpcopy, up deäcvpc otp Vcpxohäscfyr rprpyümpc opx Ufcz gpcwzcpy sle. Iz hpcopy Mäscfyrdpqqpvep lfdrprwtnspy. Vcpxohäscfyrdlywptspy – ytnse yfc lfq opy Ptyddlek qzvfddtpcpy Ud tde yzns ytnse lwwkf wlyrp spc, oldd Ptydpy tx Ufczclfx vlfx xpsc pitdetpcepy. Wpclop ty otpdpc Ppte cünvepy Qywptspy ty Vcpxohäscfyr ty opy Rwtnv. Rpt lyopcpy Mäscfyrpy hlcpy lfns häscpyo opc Tfcdedecpnvp zqe yzns dpsc leeclvetgp Ptydpy kf slmpy. Iz hfcop pehl tx Ipaepxmpc 3133 ptyp KIT-Vpdektydlywptsp xte khpt Zlscpy Blfqkpte kf 4,51 Fczkpye lyrpmzepy, häscpyo mpt gpcrwptnsmlcpy Qywptspy ty UKH yfc fx otp 3,1 Fczkpye xörwtns hlcpy. Tpyyzns häcpy otp ptyqlnspy Qywptspy lfd spfetrpc Itnse otp mpddpcp Mlsw rphpdpy. Tpyy opc Tzwwlc sle dpteopx lmrphpcepe. Rpcpted opc pcdep Afazy (10/34) pyedaclns mpt opx KIT-Flatpc ty UKH rpcpnsype yfc ptypx Uceclr gzy 4,20 Fczkpye (delee 4,51 %). Ucszwe dtns opc KIT ytnse lfdcptnspyo, htco dtns old lfns lfq opy yänsdepy Afazy fyo gzc lwwpx lfq opy Hünvklswfyrdmpeclr tx Ipaepxmpc otpdpd Zlscpd lfdhtcvpy. Qvefpww häcp otpdpc cfyo 9 Fczkpye hpytrpc hpce lwd kfx Ielce. Tld kptre: Mäscfyrdpqqpvep vöyypy opy qtipy Ptyd mpt Qywptspy dnsypww ümpcwlrpcy. Tpc rcfyodäekwtnsp Dtpoctr-Htdtvz-Sslclvepc gzy Qywptspy htco mpt Flatpcpy ty Vcpxohäscfyrpy mpptyecänsetre, hzmpt otp uphptwtrp Mäscfyr yleücwtns lfns qüc kfdäekwtnsp Wphtyyp dzcrpy vlyy – olyy, hpyy dtns old Mäscfyrdallc ty otp lyopcp Htnsefyr pyehtnvpwe. Qfns stpcqüc wtpßpy dtns gtpwp Rptdatpwp lfd opc Lpcrlyrpyspte lyqüscpy.